A report by the Fundación BBVA and IVIE, based on population projections from the INE (National Statistics Institute), anticipates significant changes in the Valencian educational landscape between 2026 and 2041. The Valencian Community will record the lowest population decline in school age (6 to 24 years) among all autonomous regions, with an estimated drop of 5%.
Nationally, a 13.7% reduction in the school-age population is expected for the same period. The Valencian Community, with a 5% decrease, positions itself as the region with the most dynamic demographic growth in this segment, far ahead of others like the Balearic Islands (-8.6%) or the Community of Madrid (-10.1%). Ceuta and Melilla show the most pronounced drops, exceeding 33%.
The study breaks down these projections by educational cycles. It highlights the anticipated growth for Kindergarten (0-5 years), which in the Valencian Community is expected to increase by 22.9%, the highest figure in Spain. In contrast, the student population in compulsory education (Primary and ESO up to 15 years) will decrease by 5%, and High School by 14.5%, both figures being the lowest among all autonomous communities.
Regarding the population aged 18 to 24, corresponding to post-compulsory studies, the Valencian Community will experience a minimal drop of 2.2%, also the lowest nationally and 6 points below the state average. These demographic changes underscore the need to reallocate educational resources, including infrastructure and teaching staff, despite the inherent difficulties in this process across different levels and territories.
The report's authors call on educational administrations to strengthen future planning, taking advantage of the flexibility offered by the upcoming retirement of numerous teachers. In Spain, the average age of university professors is 49.5 years, with 18.7% over 60, while in secondary education, 35% are over 50, creating an opportunity to reorient human resources towards the most needed areas and training.
