The province of Castellón is expected to experience the most significant demographic growth in the Valencian Community over the next 15 years. Its population is projected to rise from 679,719 inhabitants in 2030 to 745,114 in 2040, an increase of 65,395 residents (+9.6%). The working-age population (16-64 years) will grow by 3.9%, while the senior cohort (65 years and over) will increase by 30%, from 147,998 to 193,713 people. This means retirees will represent approximately 26% of the provincial population, a surge attributed to the arrival of the 'baby boom' generation.
According to the Observatory of Vulnerability and Employment of the Adecco Foundation, based on projections from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Valencian Community will add 123,622 working-age individuals between 2030 and 2040 (+3%). Concurrently, the population over 64 years old will increase by 369,046 people (+28.8%), nine times more than the active workforce. The working population will peak in 2035 (3,960,022 inhabitants) and then slightly decline. The senior population, however, will grow to 1,650,190 people by 2040.
The decline in the working-age population from 2035 onwards is explained by the gradual transition to retirement of the 'baby boom' and part of the Generation X. Simultaneously, the generations entering the workforce at age 16 will be smaller due to the low birth rates recorded since the 2010s.
Overall, the Valencian Community will gain 516,587 inhabitants between 2030 and 2040 (an 8.8% increase), reaching 6,396,071. The working population will rise by 3.2%, while the senior population will increase by 28.8%. The province of Valencia will see the largest absolute increase (237,684 people), reaching 3,207,154 inhabitants, with a relative growth of 8%. The working population will go up by 2.7%, and the senior population by 26.8%, accounting for 24.9% of the total.
In Alicante, the population will grow by 9.6% to 2,443,802 inhabitants by 2040. The working-age population will increase by 3.7%, while those aged 65 and over will rise by 30.8%. By 2040, more than one in four Alicante residents (26.9%) will be at least 65 years old, reinforcing the need to leverage senior experience and combat age barriers in the labor market.
